Headlines like “Dow Presses On to Historic Peak” seem a little scary. Yet there it is, splashed across page 1 of today’s Wall Street Journal.
Being part of anything cyclical can bring its chills as well as thrills – because of that old saw about what goes up must … (well, you know, I don’t want to say it). We don’t know, of course, whether this is THE PEAK or simply a peak. And I can’t forecast worth a darn.
Not all that long ago, in the summer of 1979, Business Week‘s cover declared “The Death of Equities.” If you had taken that as a Buy signal and held on through the 1980s and 1990s, you would have done alright – check it out on the WSJ‘s graph.
But “Historic Peak” does make you think. Many of us work for companies that have shared in the market’s relentless, if bumpy – maybe historic – climb. The trends may look fine. But did we cause this rise in the market – or in our companies’ stocks? And what comes next?
My feeling is that all of us, especially investor relations people, need to stay a bit humble about trends and prospects.