Posts Tagged ‘Institutional investors’

3 common mistakes in small-cap IR

December 29, 2012

Small-cap company boards should help CEOs and CFOs face the difficulties of connecting with investors and analysts, governance adviser Adam Epstein argues in a roundtable on investor relations (“Communicating with the Street: Addressing Small-Cap Challenges”) in the Nov-Dec 2012 issue of Directorship magazine.

Here, for example, are three prevalent mistakes that small caps make in IR:

  • “A failure to communicate clearly with an appreciation for the audience [emphasis mine]. … A mix of small, growth-oriented institutional investors and retail investors typically owns shares of smaller public companies, and many lack technical educations and backgrounds. Accordingly, communications with the Street will resonate with only a small portion of investors unless that technology-speak is simplified and more emphasis is given to what most small-cap investors care about—growth and financial performance.” (David Enzer, Roth Capital Partners, small-cap banker)
  • Small-cap habits that “destroy management’s credibility [emphasis mine] and make investors run for the hills and on to the next opportunity: One, a failure to communicate on a consistent, scheduled and timely basis, regardless of whether the news is good or bad. Two, a failure to translate non-GAAP metrics into GAAP metrics, e.g., no one except management knows what ‘orders’ or ‘bookings’ means in terms of revenue. And three, chronically overpromising and underdelivering.” (Timothy Keating, Keating Capital, small-cap investor)
  • “A systemic failure to treat investor relations as a strategic imperative [emphasis mine] … Electing not to put the proper investor relations policies and procedures in place to offer management the opportunity to present a cogent business plan, with proper forward guidance to targeted investors and analysts, will all but guarantee life in the ‘boundary waters’ of Wall Street for small-cap companies.” (John Heilshorn, Lippert/Heilshorn & Associates, IR consultant)

IR is about the basics, in other words. CEOs and CFOs of smaller companies, especially, tend to be so focused on daily demands of running the business that they don’t devote the time or resources needed to communicate well. Where boards can help is by identifying a lack of engagement in IR – and encouraging more. It takes commitment to identify your audience, speak their language and explain who you are. And more commitment to maintain a consistent, proactive outreach.

Although the Directorship piece focused on small caps, commitment to excellence in IR really is the issue with many companies – from micro-cap wannabes to global mega-cap giants.

© 2012 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

The public markets’ competitor

May 11, 2012

Q: Do you ever wish you were publicly traded?

A: Oh God, no. I have the greatest job in the world, because I work for a guy who runs the company for the next 20 years, not the next 90 days. It’s tough being a public company, and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

 –  Steve Feilmeier, executive VP & CFO
Koch Industries, Inc.

As investor relations people, we rub elbows mostly with publicly traded companies. We think about how to get our message out to the capital markets in competition with other public companies, especially our peers within narrow industry sectors.

But a whole other class of competitors exists in a parallel universe – competitors for capital and, in our businesses, for customers. Maybe we ought to pay attention.

What started me thinking was Steve Feilmeier, CFO of Koch Industries, who spoke this morning to the Kansas City chapter of Association for Corporate Growth. Known to outsiders mostly for media attention in political controversies, on the business side Koch is a $125 billion company with 67,000 employees – the No. 2 privately held business in America. No. 1 in profitability, Feilmeier hastens to add.

Right at the start, Feilmeier says being privately held is a competitive advantage:

We benefit from not having to report earnings every 90 days. All of our decisions are based on, How is this going to work out in the next 10 years?

And it’s working out just fine for Koch (sounds like “coke”). The firm is doubling revenue every five or six years with a dozen operating companies in agriculture, energy and manufacturing. Although Koch doesn’t report publicly, Feilmeier makes it clear those businesses are delivering even better growth in EBITDA (slides here).

An example of Koch’s presence: AngelSoft, its toilet tissue brand, is the No. 1 SKU in Walmart stores. No. 1. Feilmeier says 60 truckloads a day leave Koch’s Georgia-Pacific subsidiary loaded just with AngelSoft four-packs bound for Walmarts.

The ongoing shift in institutional investor preferences among asset classes is the other thing that got me thinking. I keep hearing about pension funds, endowments and real people putting more money into alternative investments – capital that isn’t flowing to publicly held companies represented by IR pros.

Consider these stats: In 2001 U.S. pension funds held 65% of assets in equities, but that dropped to 44% by 2011, according to the Towers Watson Global Pension Assets Study 2012. in those 10 years, the “Other” category in asset allocation – real estate, private equity and hedge funds – quintupled from 5% to 25%. Apply those changes to $16 trillion in U.S. pension assets and you’re talking real money.

Without getting in over my head further on macro views of the capital markets, my point is that public companies ought to think strategically about their investors. Institutions and individuals don’t have to invest in any particular public company. They might even flee the stock market, with some of their funds, for “alternatives.”

And this brings me back to Koch. Feilmeier’s description of why Koch keeps growing at the top line – and especially the bottom line – holds lessons that public companies and IR people might take to heart. A few interesting ideas:

  • Do investors see management-by-quarterly-numbers, or something like Koch’s “patient & disciplined” creation of wealth? How do we discuss performance?
  • Can we demonstrate how our incentive pay turns managers into entrepreneurs, who get paid when they deliver (and not when they don’t)?
  • Do we have real accountability? Koch doesn’t believe in subsidizing any of its businesses, so operating execs are responsible for balance sheets and P&Ls.
  • How do we make decisions? Koch demands rigorous comparison of every capital project with alternatives – will this investment deliver the best return?

Koch, of course, is a giant company. There are well-managed and poorly managed firms of every size in both the public and private arenas. But the principles Feilmeier discussed are common private-equity approaches to driving performance.

Private vs. public is a common debate among CEOs and finance folks. Some private companies long for public status – and a fortunate few make it through the IPO process to get listed. On the other hand some micro-cap and even mid-cap public companies wish they were private, to escape the hassles of quarterly reporting.

Whether public or private, maybe we need to get back to basics of running companies by rigorous disciplines of wealth creation. And public companies need to communicate how those disciplines create real shareholder value.

What do you think?

© 2012 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

Investors, this is your day!

September 13, 2011

If you’re not already doing an “analyst day” every year or two, maybe you should be. That’s my takeaway from “NIRI Survey Reveals Current Analyst/Investor Day Practices” - a benchmarking study released Monday by NIRI.

Key finding: 71% of the 431 investor relations professionals responding to NIRI’s survey hold a periodic analyst/investor day. It’s a chance to show off management and tell the company’s story in-depth. After all, you’re locking investors in a room for a half day or full day, so this is “quality time.”

Of course, the larger a company is, the more likely it is to host a regular analyst day. But even among small caps ($250 million-$2 billion), 63% offer a “day.”

Some 70% hold their analyst days in New York or another major investment center, while 40% invite investors in to meetings at a corporate facility, NIRI found.

A few thoughts based on analyst days I’ve been involved with:

  • The CEO and CFO play host and give the strategic overview, but having a half day or more is a great opportunity to demonstrate management’s bench strength by bringing division heads, R&D leaders or operating executives forward for investors to meet them in a fairly controlled environment.
  • It’s also a chance to put on display the chemistry of the management team – showing investors how the top execs relate to each other. Not a bad idea to do this some months after a big merger, to present a unified, compatible team.
  • How often you hold an analyst day is up to you. How fast is the story evolving? If there’s progress every year, annual is great. If this year looks a lot like last, maybe not. (NIRI found 49% of companies who hold “days” do so annually, 35% less often, 12% on an ad hoc basis, 3% more than once a year.)
  • The name “analyst day” doesn’t quite capture the fact that institutional investors are the primary audience. Sure, the sell side attends – but real shareholders and potential investors are the main point of the effort.
  • I personally like the on-site analyst day, giving investors a feeling of seeing the business and kicking the tires, even though they’re carefully shepherded on any tours of the plant or laboratories. But a lot depends on your location. Call up a few analysts or investors and get their input before scheduling your day.
  • Schedule enough breaks to let investors check email, used the phone and visit the restroom. It’s hard to limit your speakers – but, hey, give people a break.

What’s your experience with analyst days? Love ‘em? Hate ‘em? Any tips?

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

What’s wrong with this company?

May 31, 2011

A contrarian approach to messaging for investor relations is to ask yourself, “What’s wrong with this company?” Then, in IR reports and presentations, address the weak points of your business – what causes investors to turn up their noses – along with your solutions.

This offbeat idea was prompted by an interview with Anne Gudefin, a stock picker involved in Pimco’s growing presence in the equity markets, in Fortune‘s May 23, 2011, issue. She is a value investor, and like many I’ve talked to Gudefin is looking for stocks that are beaten down – but have upside potential.

“How do you decide a stock is cheap?” Fortune asks. Gudefin says she likes good business models, high barriers to entry and free cash flow. Then she adds:

I also want to see things that aren’t operating perfectly at the moment, so there’s a margin for improvement. I look for there to be a number of catalysts for value to be unlocked. … During the second quarter of last year we bought BP. Because everyone was so negative about it, we were able to buy very good assets at a very cheap price.

Like many on the buy side, Gudefin is looking for companies with a “catalyst for change.” If something’s wrong, the value-oriented investor sees upside potential.

Sure, IR usually focuses on a company’s strengths – great products, competitive advantages, 24-carat gold balance sheet, smart management. We love bar graphs that show a powerful uptrend. We recite accomplishments of each quarter or year.

Maybe IR should look for vulnerabilities. Good investors will find them, anyway. How about bringing issues out in the open? Of course, we won’t title our roadshow presentation “3 Reasons Not to Invest.” But let’s discuss that catalyst for change:

  • Spell out the challenge. Describe the problem objectively, as investors and analysts are likely to see it. Show a capacity for humility, even self-criticism.
  • Define a solution. Emphasize your strategy for solving the problem. The more tangible the actions you lay out, the more you overcome investors’ doubt.
  • Track your progress. Check off actions as you take them. Quantify the progress. Investors will be convinced after a quarter or two of positive results.

Being transparent about problems has drawbacks, of course. Some challenges are tough, they may stretch over several quarters, and you may report a disappointing lack of progress at some stage – or even have to change the strategy.

Think of the really good questions investors sometimes ask. Why are sales flat in your XYZ division? Your gross margin is underperforming these peer companies – how are you addressing that? What business issue keeps you awake at night?

What’s important is that you recognize what is holding back your company’s value and explain to investors that you are implementing a plan to solve that problem. The goal is improving performance that unlock the value for shareholders.

What do you think? Any tips on IR reporting on business problems?

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

IR is still about the long term

May 12, 2011

Among several bits of wisdom shared by Jane McCahon last night at a NIRI Kansas City meeting is the idea that investor relations, at its core, still has the mission of building a base of long-term investors who believe in your company and its future.

McCahon is VP of corporate relations for Chicago-based Telephone and Data Systems and its publicly traded subsidiary U.S. Cellular. She is a longtime IRO with experience in several industries and is a former chair of the NIRI national board.

Measuring the success of IR isn’t about this quarter, McCahon says. Success develops over several years as you develop a group of long-term investors who understand and support the company’s story.

You can do perception studies to evaluate how the relationships are going. But the ultimate measure will come in a moment, sometime in the future, when you need your shareholders – when management needs a critical proxy vote, support in an M&A situation or buy-in for a follow-on offering.

In that moment, if you’ve been doing your job well, you’ll approach those investors and the answer will come: “We’re with you.”

As for the near term, McCahon says, make an annual IR plan and put it into practice. Focus on what you can control or influence, not what you can’t change.

One IRO asked how you deal with high-frequency trading and the daily gyrations of stocks in today’s hyper-short-term market. McCahon’s advice:

You can’t. What’s your title? Investor relations – not trader relations. Yes, you have to be aware of what it is and be explaining these events to people. But there’s nothing you can do about it – move on.

McCahon says one of the best things an IR professional can do is spend 50% to 70% of your time focusing internally: educating management about investors’ feelings, preparing execs to meet with analysts and shareholders, coming up with Q&As and drilling managers, sharing the IR plan and managing internal expectations.

“What’s changed in IR?” someone asked. Well, this led to a big discussion about fax machines. Too many of us in the room remember when fax machines were the coolest new technology for rapid communication with the market. We punched in fax numbers and waited for it to send. Today, who still owns a fax machine?

McCahon suggests, though, that the heart of IR hasn’t changed: It’s finding and cultivating long-term investors for that moment in the future when you need them.

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

Afterthoughts on Buffett & IR

March 15, 2011

National Investor Relations Institute President and CEO Jeff Morgan follows up on Warren Buffett’s public comments about communicating with investors (see “Buffett takes a poke at IR”) today in NIRI’s IR Weekly e-newsletter.

The Berkshire Hathaway CEO, you may recall, told CNBC in a recent interview that as an investor he doesn’t need to be “schmoozed.” And he’s sympathetic with CEOs who don’t like meeting with analysts or investors. Buffett does his annual letter to shareholders (which I’ve often noted is enlightening and entertaining), and he and Charlie Munger answer questions for hours at their annual meeting.

Beyond that? Contrary to what IR people advise, as Buffett describes it, “I don’t think it’s important to schmooze investors.” In his 2010 shareholder letter, he boasts that top managers enjoy working for Berkshire in part because they’re “not subjected to … Wall Street harassment” – that is, meeting with investors or analysts.

Morgan provides an update from an executive in the Berkshire family – one who works with IR people - elaborating on Buffett’s philosophy. From the IR Weekly:

While his comments may have surprised you, Mr. Buffett considers the IR function to be very important, indicates Cathy Baron Tamraz, Chairman and CEO of Business Wire (a Berkshire Hathaway company), so much so that Buffett is Berkshire Hathaway’s primary IR contact. Cathy told me that Mr. Buffett’s core principles are that all investors (no matter the size) be treated the same, and they should all have the same access to information and the C-Suite. Mr. Buffett is in the unique position to do this largely through his candid and thorough annual report and the time he spends on Q&A at his annual meeting.

OK … I’m cool with the egalitarian ideal. In theory at least, the retail owner of 100 shares (or maybe one share, in Berkshire’s case) is as important as an institutional holder of 100,000. But Buffett tells CNBC the annual meeting and report are really his answer to IR. “I spend no time, for example, with any specific analyst,” he says.

That still seems odd to me. Or perhaps exceptional is the word. If your CEO is a legend in the investing world, then your company is exceptional – and Buffett’s IR approach may work fine. But I don’t think most companies have the cachet of Berkshire Hathaway. And so most of us, in my opinion, ought to talk to investors or analysts when they call, go out to tell our story, and maybe even “schmooze.”

I really have no quibble with Buffett (not that the opinion of a flea would matter to a giant, anyway). My concern is that CEOs and CFOs of companies across America should not take Buffett’s dismissal of standard practice in investor relations as the standard for all companies. Small and medium cap firms, especially, will hurt themselves if they shun contacts with investors.

Speaking of philosophy, consider this comment by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, to whom Buffett gives much credit for his own investing acumen. Graham and David Dodd wrote in their seminal work Security Analysis (1934):

Published information may often be supplemented to an important extent by private inquiry of or by interview with the management. There is no reason why stockholders should not ask for information on specific points, and in many cases part at least of the data asked for will be furnished. It must never be forgotten that a stockholder is an owner of the business and an employer of its officers. He is entitled not only to ask legitimate questions but also to have them answered, unless there is some persuasive reason to the contrary.

I know disclosure has changed since Graham – we have all these laws like the ’33 and ’34 Acts, Sarbanes Oxley and Reg FD – but I still like his reminder of who the owners are. And if it means employing an IRO or two to talk to investors, so be it.

What’s your opinion? Interesting comments on the prior post – feel free to weigh in.

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

Buffett takes a poke at IR

March 9, 2011

Some folks in the investor relations community are bothered – even angered – by Warren Buffett’s recent verbal jabs at IR people and the profession as a whole.

March 15 Update: a few additional thoughts here.

Maybe I’m thick-skinned. I don’t think we need to feel threatened by what the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway says about IR. Nor should we see the Oracle of Omaha as some sort of, well, oracle. He’s one CEO. We must look closely at our companies and CEOs, challenge conventional thinking, and decide what makes sense in IR.

In a wide-ranging CNBC “Squawk Box” interview on March 2, Buffett is asked by Carl Quintanilla about a comment in his 2010 annual shareholder letter that “At Berkshire, managers can focus on running their businesses: They are not subjected to meetings at headquarters nor financing worries nor Wall Street harassment.”

And Buffett replies at some length to CNBC:

Well … I would say that in talking to managers of publicly traded companies, I find — I would say that the great majority of them do not particularly enjoy the interaction with Wall Street. I mean, they do not like the quarterly conference calls and everything. That’s not to say they shouldn’t do it, but I’m just saying that is a part of their job that if they didn’t have it, they would be happier in life. They do not like spending, you know, 15 or 20 percent of the time —

I spend no time, for example, with any specific analyst. We spend all the weekend of the annual meeting, you know, we’re there to answer questions for hours and hours and hours, and I try to answer all questions that I think are important than I can think of in the annual report. But I have never sat down — I never sit down with a big investor. They write and say, you know, `We own $500 million worth of stock, you have to sit down with us.’ And I say, listen, I’m not going to sit down with you … as far as I’m concerned, one share of me owned by some … woman in my neighborhood is just as important as yours.

… But most managements kowtow to large investors. In fact, they call me — some of the things we own, they call me and they want to come from thousands of miles away to talk to me. And I say listen, if I need to talk to you, I shouldn’t own your stock. I mean, I don’t — I don’t need to be schmoozed, you know? I mean — and the investor relations guys hate that because their job is dependent on, you know, making the boss feel it’s very important to go around and stroke these big investors. But I’m not looking for that. And I would say that most managements don’t enjoy it, and … they do spend a significant part of time when I would rather have them out there figuring out ways to cut costs or sell more goods or whatever it may be. And our managers do not have to spend any time on that sort of thing.

Quintanilla asks if spending time with investors is “a function of being public, or having investor relations to deal with.” Buffett:

It’s a function of succumbing to what investor relations people and Wall Street generally tells you is important. I don’t think it’s important to schmooze investors. I think in the end you get a class of investors — what you want is people that understand you and your business and what you’re about.

… And the idea of trying to cultivate new people all the time, you know, there’s only so many seats in the church. And at Berkshire, in terms of the A stock, we have a million, 600 and some thousand seats. The only way a guy gets a seat is for somebody else to leave. I’d rather keep the person that’s there than to try and induce somebody else … go out a thousand miles on a trip and tell them, you know, things are wonderful and sort of dodge around the problems of the business. I’d much rather … keep the person that’s there already, have people that know and understand Berkshire, and not look for a revolving door constituency.

I won’t burden you with lengthy reactions, but I do have a few thoughts:

  • Data support the value of effective IR. For example, surveys of buy side investors say good IR boosts a company’s valuation up to 10%, while bad IR hurts as much as 25%. Increased sell side analyst coverage lowers the cost of capital. And issuing news more often benefits liquidity for shareholders.
  • It seems arrogant for Buffett, in his annual report, to describe management meetings with investors as “Wall Street harassment.” I’m uncomfortable with the way he views the basic activity of communicating directly with shareowners.
  • Buffett dismisses IR as “schmoozing,” telling investors “things are wonderful” and dodging difficult issues. More often, I see investor meetings as management being willing to face tough questions. And I’ve talked with many investors who say watching the CEO or CFO answer and getting a sense of confidence (or doubt) is a key discipline in making investment decisions.
  • Road shows can wear on a CEO. I know I’ve sat in limos after long days of meetings and heard CEOs complain that they could be back running the business, doing what they value and enjoy. Part of the strategy for an IRO is to structure productive meetings, even enjoyable activities, for our executives – and to spread the time commitment around if possible.

Of course, Buffett is so widely revered – as an investor and CEO, mostly the former – that he’s earned the right to do it his way. I would argue he really does practice IR: There he is on CNBC, his witty shareholder letters are a brand of their own, he speaks out regularly to support his holdings’ interests, his annual meetings are a capitalist Woodstock. Berkshire Hathaway is part public company, part mutual fund and part personality cult.

I admire Buffett in many ways, including his IR messaging, but we are not him.

Most of us work for companies operating in a more earthly realm. We need to tell our stories if we want investors to know us at all – or understand us. We need investors to see our top managers and have confidence in their ability. And we need to build relationships – with current shareholders, those who might invest in the future, and even the sell-side analysts who advise their own sets of clients.

What’s your feeling about Buffett and IR?

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

‘The new normal’ for IR

September 20, 2010

Chatting with colleagues last week, someone tossed out the phrase “the new normal.” And a co-worker shot back: “What is the new normal, anyway?”

Ever so conveniently, then, on Thursday and Friday I attended the client conference of DeMarche Associates, a Kansas City-based investment consultant. The theme: “The New Normal and How It Affects Investment Strategy.” DeMarche’s audience of pension fund managers and other institutional investors came seeking to divine the outlook for their portfolios – and to get ideas on long-term investing strategies.

But the concept has important implications for investor relations people, too.

What is the new normal, anyway?

The “new normal” is a buzzword current in business and economic discussions. It embraces the outlook that things are not going to get better, at least not much better, for some time. Maybe three, five, eight years. We’ll all come to realize, the narrative goes, that a difficult economic environment has become normal. And if a rapid recovery isn’t going to appear and solve our problems, we need to adapt to hard times and learn to live with lower expectations.

Not everyone believes in the new normal. Pundits seem split 50-50 between those who see a recovery launching us skyward into the upside of a U-shaped cycle and those who see us slogging across the bottom of a flatter, more prolonged U. My intention isn’t to take either side – just to beware of the implications.

DeMarche is in the “new normal” camp. While bullish market gurus pointed the audience to positive signs, DeMarche consultants outlined six “supercycles” since 1890: periods of 15 to 30 years when the market trended strongly up - or down.

Data indicate we’re now in a negative or neutral supercycle that began in 2000, after that lovely 1980 to 2000 period when the Dow soared 1,400%, DeMarche says. The past 10 years have treated long-term equity investors roughly: two bear markets, two bull markets, a lot of pain, volatility and – overall – no gain.

Welcome to the new normal. DeMarche expects this malaise for the stock market and other investments to continue for the next 3 to 5 years. DeMarche analysts list five trends as defining the new normal:

  • Slow economic growth - a weak recovery with GDP rising 1% to 3% a year, lacking the oomph to support robust sales and earnings growth
  • Consumer angst and frugality - consumers, who make up 70% of the economy, remaining cautious while struggling with debt and job fears
  • Declining corporate profit estimates - earnings tending to disappoint if market expectations are based on a strong recovery that doesn’t appear
  • Sideway grinding market for years - stocks trading up or down, not unlike the past decade, but without “a rising tide that lifts all boats”
  • Volatile bull and bear cycles - within a broader overall trend, markets still experiencing bull/bear cycles and recessions

Bob Marchesi, chairman & CEO of DeMarche, said the market today reflects an expectation of stronger recovery with no fear of a double-dip recession. Equity prices haven’t factored in a slow-growth scenario with a challenged consumer sector, he said. That leads him to expect a near-term correction, followed by lower average returns for equities over the next several years.

Why should IR care? What should we do?

Taking DeMarche’s prognostications for institutional investors and viewing the implications from a corporate perspective, here’s a new normal primer for IR. (Blame me for these ideas, not DeMarche, as they weren’t discussing IR.)

  • “Buy and hold” will be less common as an investment strategy. IR has to get used to it. Speaking to an audience of mostly pension fund managers, with very long investment horizons of the kind IR people love, DeMarche is recommending “dynamic” strategies and “tactical asset allocation.” Instead of buying a stock forever, investors may shift money in and out of asset classes based on valuation and changing investment characteristics. IR needs to think tactically, as well, adjusting to changing investor outlooks.
  • Hedge funds won’t be fading from the investment scene – probably the opposite. As institutions look to protect assets and wring some return out of up or down markets, DeMarche has dropped the “Alternative investments” label on hedge funds and the like. Institutions may de-emphasize the stigma and allocate more money to managers with nimble market strategies. Hedge funds come in all shapes and sizes, but we shouldn’t exclude them from IR.
  • Expect drama, up and down. In the 1930s, the US experienced three bear markets – and three of the best years of the stock market. In a negative or neutral supercycle, DeMarch says, equities may be “churning sideways” for a few years but it may feel like a rough roller coaster. When the market goes up (2009-10?) we shouldn’t break out the champagne and sing “Let the good times roll.” The new normal calls for a restrained tone in IR.
  • Consumers may not drive economic expansion of the kind we saw in the post-World War II era. The aging of Baby Boomers, pullback in spending and slowing of population growth will be a demographic drag on the economy for the next 20 years or so, DeMarche believes. One question for IR: What do demographics say about your products and markets?
  • No one has a crystal ball – so IR should communicate both the risks and our strategies for thriving in up or down times. If GDP grows 4%, revenue and earnings may boom … but what if GDP grows 1%? What if the economy goes negative and we get that double-dip?  While DeMarche’s prediction of disappointing earnings focuses on the S&P 500 as an aggregate, it’s a cautionary note for IR at individual companies.
  • Political winds are blowing in a direction more favorable to business – for the moment. But public opinion shifts rapidly. Even a “pro-business” outcome in this fall’s Congressional elections would leave a government facing high debt, on the prowl for tax revenues, and prone to regulatory solutions. The financial consequences may not seem like a tea party.

There’s a somber set of thoughts. I hope we’re not in the new normal – but we all need to prepare for that possibility in communicating with the capital markets.

What’s your view?

© 2010 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

Clarity, clarity, clarity

August 10, 2010

They don’t give Pulitzer prizes for earnings releases. Or annual reports. Or conference call scripts. But if public companies were to be judged on efforts to communicate with investors, the judges’ list of criteria would surely include clarity. The top three standards might be accuracy, timeliness and clarity.

This is the stuff of investor relations. And after all, investors do judge companies’ efforts to communicate – in the market.

I was reminded of this core mission for IR by a collection of articles on CEOs in the third-quarter issue of NYSE Magazine. In one piece Bill McNabb, Chairman and CEO of Vanguard Group, is asked what today’s shareholders want most.

McNabb talks about the nexus between governance and financial performance. Institutional investors want structures that keep management accountable, he says, because they want companies to execute well. And then he adds:

Shareholders are looking for CEOs to have an increased focus on clarity; they want to be able to understand the numbers and put them into perspective.

A lack of clear disclosure means higher risk for the investor, McNabb says:

The less clarity around off-balance-sheet activity, the higher the hurdle rate for the investment manager to get comfortable with what’s going on at a company.

As an IR practitioner, I would say our job is to be clear rather than to bury people in numbers or legalisms or “sunshine in a bottle” optimism. The goal is for investors to understand the business, its performance and market position.

Clarity – I like that!

© 2010 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.

Sell side: regionals on the rise

July 9, 2010

Institutional investors are relying a bit more for equity research on mid-sized firms, regional brokers and industry-sector specialists as the bulge-bracket investment banks continue to reel from the effects of the financial crisis, Greenwich Associates reports in its 2010 U.S. Equity Analysts Study. Investor relations people reaching out to analysts might consider the changing sell side mix in targeting sell side firms.

In its survey of 1,007 buy side professionals, Greenwich tabulated “research votes” based on the sources of equity research used, weighted by commission dollars paid out by the institutional investors. So this is more than a popularity contest – it’s a look at who the buy side is paying for equity research.

To be sure, large investment banks still speak with the loudest voice, winning 64.1% of the buy side “research votes” in early 2010. But that’s down from 73.1% in 2008. Regional and more specialized i-banks gained share, from 23.9% two years ago to 32.4%. Independent research firms also gained, from 2.7% to 3.4%, but they remain a drop in the overall research bucket.

Integrity Research Associates notes that the financial crisis has contributed to an exodus of analysts from Wall Street, as some research stars have left troubled big brokerage houses to join regional or boutique firms or set up their own shops.

Greenwich says the bulge-bracket firms saw a pronounced drop in their share of research dollars in 2008, when giants like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns disappeared. But the shift continues into 2010.

What shape Wall Street research will take in the future is an open question, but the big i-banks may regain share of voice (and commissions) as the financial crisis continues to ease. “I think the worst is over from the bulge-bracket perspective,” Greenwich MD Jay Bennett tells Pensions & Investments.

IROs tend to seek out analyst coverage where they can get it. Large cap companies or hot stocks almost fight an excess of sell side interest, while small cap IROs work hard to cultivate regional brokers, industry boutiques and independent researchers.

But watching the changing landscape of the sell side – and particularly the shifts in institutional investors’ use of that research – may help IROs allocate their time.

© 2010 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.


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